Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS64 KEPZ 242347
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
547 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the
   area on Memorial Day. Storms will be capable of strong wind
   gusts, localized downpours, and of course lightning. Patchy
   blowing dust is also possible.

 - Dry southwest flow aloft will keep skies mostly clear
   Wednesday through Saturday, with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

An upper level ridge axis remains in place over the area today.
This is helping to suppress convection trying to develop over the
higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains, on the western
fringes of some modest low level moisture over the Eastern Plains
of New Mexico. Still, expect some showers to manage to reach the
ground as they drift over the eastern slopes of the Sacramentos
over the next couple of hours.

Elsewhere, expect mostly dry conditions with light and variable
winds through the early evening. Some stray showers will attempt
to develop over the northern Sierra Madres, but will likely stay
south and west of the New Mexico Bootheel region.

Overnight, southeast slow will develop, pushing low level moisture
up to around the Rio Grande. As a weak upper level low moves into
southwestern Arizona late tonight, a broken band of additional
showers will move into far SW New Mexico from Arizona during the
pre-dawn hours. The upper low will weaken into an open trough, but
with a negative tilt orientation that will enhance upper level
divergence. Broad lift will result in additional shower
development through the morning hours, mainly in the Gila Region,
but spreading into south-central New Mexico shortly thereafter.

By midday, a surface trough will extend along the Rio Grande, with
40s dewpoints lurking to its east. The band of showers associated
with the upper trough will lift into central New Mexico, with
deeper convection expected to develop along the surface trough as
it approaches. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the Rio
Grande in the early afternoon will translate northeast through the
early evening hours. Most CAMS suggest there will be more than one
"arc" of showers and thunderstorms lifting across the area. There
will be enough wind shear and modest instability for some
organized thunderstorms, which may produce localized strong to
near-severe wind gusts, and patchy blowing dust. Lightning will
also be a risk. Localized heavy downpours are possible, but storm
motion will mitigate the flooding risk. A few areas of training
could produce 1 to 1.50 inches of rain over very small areas,
mainly in the Sacramento Mountains. PWAT values look to max out
around 0.90 to 1 inch, high for May, but not terribly alarming.
Showers and thunderstorms will shift east of the area after dark,
lingering longest in the Sacramento Mountains.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, mainly
focused just northeast of the Sacramento Mountains, but with some
residual shower risk.

Drier and quieter weather will prevail from Wednesday. Winds will
remain light, with near-seasonal temperatures. Dryline storms just
east of the area late Friday will try to push some outflow and
moisture in from the east, but no precip is expected until later
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Like the last few days, we have some low end gusty winds this
afternoon which should drop off in the next few hours and we will
have light west or southwest winds tonight. The low end wind
gusts look to return again tomorrow afternoon. Of more important
note, we will see a good chance for rain and even some
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours. Strong outflow
winds will be something to watch for. Almost any storms that
develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds. The
main threat for thunderstorms will be from 18 to 00Z, a little
earlier west of the Rio Grande and a little later east of the
river. Right now I`m not expecting any MVFR visibilities or
ceilings. The one exception could be some localized lowered
visibilities in areas of patchy blowing dust.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Easterly flow will increase low level moisture tonight, mainly
east of the Rio Grande. A shortwave trough will move SW to NE
across the area Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, mainly
to the Gila Region and areas near and east of the Rio Grande.
Wetting rain is likely, but also lightning strikes and gusty and
erratic winds.

Aside from some residual showers in the Sacramento Mountains
Tuesday, a dry southwest flow regime will set back up across the
region through the remainder of the work week with the return of
daily elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  87  63  86 /   0  60  50   0
Sierra Blanca            67  88  59  81 /   0  40  50  10
Las Cruces               63  85  53  84 /  10  50  50   0
Alamogordo               65  85  59  81 /   0  50  50  30
Cloudcroft               52  62  46  59 /   0  50  60  50
Truth or Consequences    63  83  58  81 /   0  60  50  20
Silver City              57  75  51  77 /  20  50  20  10
Deming                   62  87  56  88 /  10  40  10   0
Lordsburg                60  85  54  86 /  30  30  10   0
West El Paso Metro       70  85  61  85 /   0  60  40   0
Dell City                56  90  53  82 /   0  40  50  30
Fort Hancock             66  91  58  89 /   0  60  70  10
Loma Linda               60  83  52  78 /   0  60  60  10
Fabens                   68  88  61  88 /   0  70  50   0
Santa Teresa             66  85  60  84 /   0  60  30   0
White Sands HQ           71  85  61  83 /  10  60  50  10
Jornada Range            62  84  53  82 /   0  70  50  10
Hatch                    63  87  53  86 /  10  60  70  10
Columbus                 69  88  61  88 /  20  50  10   0
Orogrande                63  86  55  80 /   0  50  50  10
Mayhill                  49  72  46  69 /  10  40  70  60
Mescalero                50  71  44  69 /   0  50  70  50
Timberon                 45  70  43  67 /   0  50  70  50
Winston                  54  74  47  73 /  20  70  60  50
Hillsboro                61  81  55  81 /  10  60  60  20
Spaceport                60  83  51  82 /   0  60  50  20
Lake Roberts             39  72  35  78 /  20  60  30  10
Hurley                   57  79  50  81 /  20  40  20  10
Cliff                    51  81  47  84 /  20  50  20   0
Mule Creek               46  78  41  80 /  30  60  30   0
Faywood                  60  79  52  80 /  20  60  30  10
Animas                   61  84  56  85 /  20  30  10   0
Hachita                  63  86  58  85 /  30  30  10   0
Antelope Wells           62  84  57  85 /  20  20   0   0
Cloverdale               53  79  50  80 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice